The county on Sunday hit a dreaded milestone when its 7-day COVID-19 positivity rate surpassed 15% for the first time.
That could change the county’s color designation to "red," according to the state’s color-coded metrics based on community spread of COVID-19, and trigger new precautionary measures recommended by Gov. Eric Holcomb and the Indiana State Department of Health.
Whether Johnson County moves to "red" will be announced at noon Wednesday, when the state health department updates its map. Based on the county’s positivity rate and cases per capita, that is likely to happen.
‘Buckle down, stay the course’
[sc:text-divider text-divider-title=”Story continues below gallery” ]
The 7-day positivity rate on Saturday jumped almost two points overnight, to 14%, then climbed to 15.5% on Sunday, and to 15.8% on Monday.
Betsy Swearingen, Johnson County Health Department director, said this new high is a combination of the community’s failure to adhere to public health recommendations on Thanksgiving and in daily life.
“We are one of the two worst states right now for daily cases per 100,000. Loosening quarantine guidelines and failing to follow guidelines right now is a recipe for disaster,” Swearingen said.
The county’s neighbors to the east and west also have increasing positivity rates and are likely to join Johnson County in the "red" this week. Morgan and Shelby counties were both worse off than Johnson County Monday with 18.8% and 21.7% positivity rates, respectively. The county’s neighbors to the north and south had lower positivity rates; Marion County was at 14.5%, Bartholomew County was at 12.5% and Brown County was at 10.7%.
If the county goes "red," the following should go into effect, according to the state’s guidance. In "red," gatherings will be limited to 25 people; attendance at school or winter athletic events should be limited to parents and essential personnel; local officials should consider limiting hours at bars, nightclubs and restaurants, or going to a carry-out only model; recreational sports leagues should limit attendance to parents and required personnel; activities at long-term care facilities should be suspended; hospitals and congregate living facilities should restrict visitors; and workplace break rooms and common areas should be closed.
The most tangible effect going "red" would have on Johnson County is restrictions on multi-household gatherings and school events, Swearingen said. Other restrictions would have to come from Johnson County’s Board of Commissioners, mayors or town councils, she said.
The county’s elevated positivity rate has local health officials concerned for the future and preparing for the rate to climb even higher. Though COVID-19 vaccines are likely to be approved and distributed in the coming weeks, it will be months before a vaccine can help slow the spread among the general population.
Swearingen calls on county residents to take the positivity rate as a cue COVID-19 is not going away and, even if they are tired of it, they have to continue to take precautions.
“Now is it not the time to become complacent. Now is the time to buckle down and stay the course,” Swearingen said. “Hopefully that and the vaccine that is coming out will help steer us in the right direction.”
‘Afraid we will have to go overboard’
Both county health department and county hospital officials are pleading with county residents to take infection control measures such as wearing masks, washing hands and social distancing more seriously to avoid serious consequences for both public health and the economy.
“I think the positivity rate shows what happens when we don’t adhere to the guidance and we don’t listen to the public health experts. If people continue to not be compliant with that we will continue to see things get worse,” said Lisa Brown, Johnson County’s public health nurse.
For now, the state is asking local governments to take stronger measures when conditions merit it, but the recent surge in cases may mean that needs to be reevaluated, said Dr. David Dunkle, president and CEO of Johnson Memorial Health.
“It is no surprise to me with the numbers we’ve been seeing in our hospital and our clinics,” Dunkle said of the county’s positivity rate. “I just don’t know what it is going to take. They have to start wearing their mask or the next step will probably be government intervention.”
Holcomb’s strategy to leave most infection control policies up to local governments is wise, Dunkle said. But more action should be considered if things don’t change soon, he said.
“I’m not a politician, but what we are doing is obviously not working. The thought that people are going to do the right thing and stop the spread of the disease is not working,” Dunkle said. “I am not one who is in favor of a lot of government intervention. But unfortunately, there comes a time when state officials might have to do more.”
Dunkle urges county residents to make sacrifices now to avoid harsh consequences later.
“I’m afraid of that collateral damage. I’m afraid we will have to go overboard,” Dunkle said. “I don’t want athletes to not have a season. I don’t want businesses to close. I don’t want to have to turn away patients. What I want is for people to wear a mask, socially distance and wash their hands.”
The increasing positivity rate has not yet contributed to a higher patient volume, Dunkle said. The number of COVID-19 patients has ebbed and flowed for the past few weeks, ranging from 10 to 20 in the hospital’s critical care unit. There were 10 on Monday, and the Franklin hospital was no longer on diversion, but that could change at a moment’s notice, he said.
Still, staffing remains a challenge, with any out with illnesses of their own or in quarantine due to exposure. Employees are being asked to work more and deal with extraordinary circumstances. The hospital’s greatest need continues to be critical care nurses, and the hospital this weekend deploying a few strategies to relieve overtaxed CCU nurses, Dunkle said.
The hospital on Saturday posted a call-out on social media pleading with any available registered nurses and paramedics to apply.
Both nurses would be called on to help relieve CCU nurses and complete taks within their license such as documenting patient conditions, administering medicine and calling medical codes. With the statewide shortage of critical care nurses, these steps are needed to avoid further erosion of quality patient care, he said.
[sc:pullout-title pullout-title=”By the numbers” ][sc:pullout-text-begin]
Here is a look at Monday’s COVID-19 numbers:
Johnson County
New cases: 150
New deaths: 1
7-day positivity: 15.8%
Indiana
New cases: 5,700
New deaths: 42
7-day positivity: 13.8%
Source: Indiana State Department of Health
[sc:pullout-text-end]
