‘Big, dark cloud’: Local health officials say omicron surge could be worst yet

The ominous omicron variant made its way to Indiana just in time for the holidays.

The Indiana Department of Health announced Sunday that omicron was found in Indiana. Genomic sequencing determined a sample taken from a state resident on Dec. 9 was consistent with the omicron variant. The variant was detected through the IDOH Laboratories’ variant surveillance program, state officials said. Johnson County health officials are concerned the highly transmissible variant will create a surge worse than any we have seen during the coronavirus pandemic.

The World Health Organization labeled it a variant of concern on Nov. 26, after it began to spread in several countries around the world. Since then, studies have shown the variant spreads more easily and faster than the delta variant.

Because this strain of the virus is more transmissible, its arrival in the state does not bode well for the holidays. In the weekend announcement, Dr. Kris Box, state health commissioner, said the latest mutation of the virus underscores the importance of getting vaccinated and taking other steps to prevent its spread, especially as Hoosiers gather for the holidays and move indoors during the colder winter months.

Not only is the omicron variant more transmissible, it is also more capable of infecting vaccinated people. A recent study from scientists at Columbia University and the University of Hong Kong shows the variant is more capable of getting past protection afforded by antibodies. New spike proteins present on this variant are more aggressive and lessen the effectiveness of all four vaccines considered in the study as well as monoclonal antibody treatments. The four vaccines studied are Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson and AstraZeneca. The study shows booster shots add greater protection against the new variant, however. Three shots of Pfizer or Moderna is about 70% effective against the omicron variant, compared to more than 90% against the original strain, the study shows.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now encouraging everyone aged 16 and older to get a booster shot six months following full vaccination with any of the three vaccines approved in the United States. The booster recommendation has steadily grown since the shots were first approved for public use, in response to effectiveness data and the new variant.

The new data is concerning health officials at all levels. Cases and hospitalizations are surging all over the country, and more than 73% of cases nationwide are being traced to the omicron variant, according to CDC estimates posted Monday.

Johnson Memorial Health officials are preparing for what could potentially be the worst surge of the pandemic, said Dr. David Dunkle, president and CEO. Though the state has a known omicron case, it is likely there are more cases and that the variant is already in Johnson County, he said.

“It is a big dark cloud and it is slowly moving our way,” Dunkle said.

The Johnson County Health Department and other agencies that give tests around the county are also preparing for a surge in testing due to holiday gatherings and omicron, said Betsy Swearingen, health department director.

It could be the perfect storm for a poor start to 2022, Dunkle said. Patient volumes are already high from routine medical treatments and typical winter respiratory viruses, and Dunkle is concerned the situation will get much worse.

The hospital has been steady at 14 or 15 COVID-19 patients a day for about the last three weeks, he said. That is 10 less than the hospital’s all-time high of 25 patients, which was reached twice earlier this year.

Symptoms produced by the omicron variant tend to be less severe and more like a cold for those who are vaccinated. Dunkle hopes vaccines will help somewhat stem the tide that is expected from the variant. However, the sheer number of people who will be infected increases the chance that more people who are at high risk will end up in the hospital, he said.

“We are going to see many more people ill than we may have at any other time during this pandemic,” Dunkle said. “Hopefully, that does not mean more hospitalizations and more deaths. This will impact our community at a high rate given how transmissible this strain is.”

Breakthrough cases are already becoming more common at the county hospital. But those cases rarely turn into severe infections that requires hospitalization, he said.

“We are seeing more breakthrough cases, even with our employees who are vaccinated,” Dunkle said. “But I’m talking outpatient. In-patient hospitalizations are almost exclusively unvaccinated. We are also starting to see more people on ventilators and BiPap and requiring aggressive oxygen therapy.”

With treatments that rely on antibodies and vaccines becoming less effective, hospitals face new obstacles to treatment. A CDC advisory on omicron says some treatments are expected to remain effective despite the changes in the new variant, though others are now less useful.

Health care workers are already feeling the strain, Dunkle said.

“Honestly, you can’t (prepare). We’ve been doing the same things we have been for two years — trying to prepare enough staff and enough supplies,” he said. “You start to see the cracks in people who have been working at a feverish pace for two years. You have the same people step up. I’m worried about the strain this is putting on my highest producers.”

The situation at the hospital is not yet bad enough to cancel non-emergency surgeries, but officials have canceled some procedures when the hospital is too full to accommodate an overnight stay following a surgery, Dunkle said.

“We had to cancel one on Friday. That patient didn’t get their surgery because our beds are filled with unvaccinated COVID-19 patients,” he said.

With the holidays fast approaching, local health officials recommend returning to guidance from earlier in the pandemic.

“Let’s hope people practice good precautions to make sure 2022 starts healthy and happy instead of sick and regretful,” Swearingen said.

Chief among those precautions are knowing what guests at holiday parties have been up to and whether they are vaccinated. When in public, wear masks and socially distance, health officials say.