Krull
INDIANAPOLIS—The decision by the cartel of major oil-producing nations reveals how repressive regimes intend to wage war going forward.
They’re going to shift the fight away from military engagements and try to rob economic sanctions of their power by making energy a battlefield, even a fresh front.
That’s what the move to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day is about. It’s a flexing of muscle and an attempt to force western, self-governing countries to reengage in an arena in which they are vulnerable.
In the short term, the cutback is designed to generate funds for cash-strapped Russian strongman Vladmir Putin’s now increasingly costly and futile campaign to conquer Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has united the west in ways not seen for generations and left the autocratic Putin and his country isolated and on the defensive.
Ukraine’s determination to fight back, coupled with the staunch willingness of the United States and much of Europe to provide military weapons and technology while imposing severe sanctions on the aggressor, has exposed grave Russian weaknesses.
The Russian military, once considered to be almost unstoppable, is being pushed back out of Ukrainian territory it had captured. Putin’s call for more than 300,000 new conscripts to fight what now appears to be a doomed war has prompted massive protests in the streets and sent Russian men fleeing to border countries to avoid the draft.
Worse, the sanctions imposed by the West are expected to have their fullest impact this coming winter and likely will result in severe shortages across the land, which only will increase the levels of unhappiness among the Russian people.
Worse still from Putin’s perspective is that eastern European nations, such as Ukraine, now are aligning with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
In short, the Russian strongman is taking a beating on military, economic and political fronts.
No wonder he wants to shift the field of battle.
Enter Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, otherwise known as MBS.
Like Putin, MBS is a thug. He sees murder both as a political tool and a birthright.
Also, like Putin, MBS thinks he and his nation have been treated unfairly, that their many transgressions against both decency and international law should be ignored and maybe even applauded. He, too, has felt the sting of sanctions and pariah-among-nations status and knows that any traditional military conflict with the West would not go well for him, his nation or his region.
He also has reason to shift the arena of engagement.
The one on which Putin and MBS now have chosen to fight makes sense for them. Not only have they chosen an arena in which they are both well-armed and well-fortified, but they have selected terrain that exposes great vulnerabilities for the West, particularly the United States.
Much of the U.S. energy policy is focusing on denying—rather than dealing with—reality. When the federal and state governments intervene during energy crises—particularly during election years—the goal is to drive down prices for consumers.
That has the effect of encouraging energy consumption, even when doing so is either wasteful or self-defeating.
Fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas are diminishing, if not disappearing, natural resources. The days in which they are cheap and easy to find are over.
Reality-deniers here in the United States say we should meet the challenge posed by the oil cartel’s cutback by increasing our own production and thus depleting our own reserves faster.
That just will leave us in an even more vulnerable position in the years ahead unless we develop discipline regarding our energy consumption or find alternative energy sources.
The United States has slightly more than 4% of the world’s population, but we Americans account for more than 17% of the world’s energy consumption.
That is why Putin and MBS chose to attack in this way. They know that America’s voracious energy consumption leaves this nation and its people exposed.
We can call the oil cartel’s decision to reduce production many things—a power play, an aid package for Vladimir Putin, a show of strength, a chess move on the geopolitical board.
All these are true.
But for us Americans, the cutback also should be seen as something else.
A wake-up call.
John Krull is director of Franklin College’s Pulliam School of Journalism and publisher of TheStatehouseFile.com, a news website powered by Franklin College journalism students. The views expressed are those of the author only and should not be attributed to Franklin College. Send comments to [email protected].
