Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., talks with reporters at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. President Joe Biden and his White House’s relationship with Johnson will be one of the most consequential relationships in Washington for at least the next year. But some of Johnson’s early decisions have confounded White House officials who are still trying to get to know him. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
The Washington Post
The House passed on earlier this month a proposal by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) that pairs $14.3 billion in emergency funding for Israel with $14.3 billion in cuts to the Internal Revenue Service, but the unserious plan will go nowhere in the Democratic-controlled Senate. And President Biden has promised a veto if it somehow winds up on his desk. What happens after the show vote will become the first test of Johnson’s capacity for national leadership since taking the gavel on Oct. 25.
The hopeful view of this help-Israel-and-cut-the-IRS gambit is that it’s cynical: Johnson follows in the footsteps of previous speakers, from both parties, who have brought up extreme legislation to appease party hard-liners before moving on to something more pragmatic. If that’s his play, it can serve as the prelude to what would become a good-faith negotiation to fund the United States’ most important ally in the Middle East as it defends itself from an Iran-backed terrorist movement guilty of horrific atrocities.
The more unsettling possibility is that the neophyte speaker wants to embody the role of “MAGA Mike Johnson,” as former president Donald Trump dubbed him on social media, in an effort to consolidate power inside the House GOP conference. In that case, Johnson is engaging in legislative obstructionism and brinkmanship even at the risk of undermining key bipartisan foreign policy objectives. In addition to cutting help for Ukraine and resources to increase border security from his bill, the speaker also cut out the White House’s proposals for humanitarian assistance for Palestinians.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) argues poignantly that supporting the self-defense of Ukraine against Russia and Israel against Hamas are interconnected struggles for freedom against authoritarianism. But Johnson, who received backing from a wing of the party that openly scorns McConnell, says he is determined to consider funding for Israel and Ukraine separately.
That could be defensible, barely, if he were to bring separate bills on each piece of Biden’s emergency supplemental request to the floor. Instead of doing that, Johnson is injecting a tax-policy poison pill. Even if the speaker were to do this to offset the cost of helping Israel, defunding the IRS would be counterproductive. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Johnson’s plan would lead to a $26.8 billion decline in revenue. The head of the tax agency estimates that the proposal would ultimately increase the deficit by $90 billion over 10 years. It’s obvious that fewer tax collectors, and less technological modernization, will mean less revenue gets collected.
This posturing comes in the context of Johnson’s having ascended to the speakership after nearly a month of chaos and the rejection of three other GOP nominees. He benefited from the Republicans’ sheer fatigue and a lack of enemies. Johnson is the least experienced House member to get the gavel since 1883.
Reasons to be nervous abound. During Trump’s effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Johnson recruited 125 House Republicans to join him in signing an amicus brief asking the Supreme Court to throw out the results in four states won by Biden. He has supported efforts to ban abortion nationally, opposed a bill last year to codify same-sex marriage rights and has referred to the “ so-called separation of church and state.”
But there are glimmers of hope that he’ll grow into the role. He is mild-mannered and preaches civility. Because he has political capital with ultraconservatives, Johnson might have more leeway to make compromises than former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) Moreover, every House seat will be on the ballot again a year from now, so Johnson has incentives to govern in a way that will not imperil his party’s five-seat majority.
At least rhetorically, he also espouses a traditional Reaganesque view of national security that emphasizes the importance of U.S. global leadership. His congressional district includes Barksdale Air Force Base, headquarters of the Air Force Global Strike Command, and Fort Johnson, the Army post formerly known as Fort Polk.
In a new job with such a steep learning curve, Johnson deserves a minimum of grace and patience — but not an infinite amount.
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