Girls basketball semistate preview

Over the course of 20 seasons from 2000 to 2019, Johnson County had just one girls basketball team (Center Grove in 2007) win a regional championship and advance to the semistate round.

The times, they are a-changin’.

Greenwood Christian ended the local drought last winter when it won the school’s first regional title in any sport before losing to Loogootee at the Class A Jasper Semistate.

The Cougars are back in that same gym today against the same opponent, and they’re not the only local girls team still playing — the Grizzly Cubs, who hadn’t won a regional since 1999, travel south to take on Brownsburg in the Class 4A Jeffersonville Semistate.

Can either (or both) break through and become the first county team to reach a state final since the 1998 Franklin squad? Here’s a quick look at today’s matchups:

Class 4A

Franklin (22-2) vs. Brownsburg (16-10)

Tipoff time: 5 p.m.

Pay-per-view webcast: IHSAAtv.org

Sagarin ratings: Franklin 95.74 (ninth in 4A, 10th in Indiana), Brownsburg 92.90 (15th in 4A, 17th overall)

Chances of victory (according to John Harrell): Franklin 58.02%, Brownsburg 41.98%

Common opponents: Plainfield (Brownsburg split two meetings and won 38-24 in a sectional final, Franklin beat the Quakers 62-44); Zionsville (Brownsburg won 51-47, Franklin lost 51-36); Mt. Vernon (Franklin won 59-52 in OT, Brownsburg won 44-35); Center Grove (Franklin won twice, Plainfield lost 45-36 on Dec. 30); Bedford North Lawrence (Franklin won 51-48, Brownsburg 43-42)

Player to watch: Brownsburg G Ally Becki

The bottom line: The Bulldogs got off to a 5-8 start this season and didn’t get above .500 until the final game of the regular season, but they’ve gotten hot at the right time, hardened by one of the state’s toughest schedules. Becki, a Junior All-Star last season and a likely Indiana All-Star this time around, leads the team in every meaningful category; it could prove very interesting if she ends up matching up with Franklin’s Kuryn Brunson, who should be on the short list of Junior All-Star candidates.

Brunson has more scoring help than Becki does — the Grizzly Cubs are far and away the most prolific 3-point shooting team in America — but Brownsburg has been pretty stingy during its current eight-game winning streak, averaging just 38.9 points allowed during that stretch. Franklin has proven that it’s more than just a run-and-gun team, and it’s also long since struck down the theory that a team with three freshman starters would crumble under tournament pressure.

Of note: The Bulldogs are trying to become just the second girls team in Indiana history to make a state final after losing 10 games; Lafayette Central Catholic (18-10) won the Class A championship in 2006.

Class A

Greenwood Christian (16-6) vs. Loogootee (19-4)

Tipoff time: 1 p.m.

Pay-per-view webcast: IHSAAtv.org

Sagarin ratings: GCA 76.24 (fifth in Class A, 72nd in Indiana), Loogootee 78.86 (second in A, 58th overall)

Chances of victory (according to John Harrell): GCA 42.63%, Loogootee 57.37%

Common opponents: Trinity Lutheran (GCA lost, 68-66, on Jan. 5, Loogootee won 57-46 in regional semifinal)

Player to watch: Loogootee G Kalea Fleming

The bottom line: The Lions pulled away for a 57-40 win when these two teams met in Jasper a year ago, with Fleming scoring 24 points and clearly emerging as the dominant player on the floor. She’s back, as are seven other Loogootee seniors — including key lineup fixtures Makenzie VanHoy and Brooklynn Jones — but there are a few new wrinkles on the GCA side.

First, the Cougars are no longer new to the big stage; most of the current players were a part of the semistate run last season and shouldn’t be intimidated by the moment. Second, the addition of senior transfer Brooklyn Stubblefield gives Alan Weems’ club another dimension in terms of quickness and length — which was something that would have come in handy against Fleming last year. Look for Stubblefield to shoulder much of the responsibility of guarding the Lions’ straw.

Neither side goes particularly deep into its bench — starters account for almost all of the scoring on both teams — so foul trouble could be a major factor.

Notable: Regardless of today’s result, Loogootee will move up to Class 2A next season due to the IHSAA’s Tournament Success Factor. GCA will also get bumped up if it wins the state championship.