Republican presidential candidate former Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen arrives to speak at a campaign event, Wednesday, June 7, 2023, in Ankeny, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Mike Pence’s continued single-digit performance in the polls, coupled with lackluster fundraising numbers, are casting doubts on the long-term viability of his presidential campaign.
The former vice president raised a modest $1.2 million for his presidential bid in the second quarter, while the super PAC supporting him raised $2.6 million. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump’s campaign said it collected $35 million for the quarter, and Gov. Ron DeSantis drew about $20 million.
Even other candidates such as former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott each raised more than twice what Pence had collected, according to campaign finance reports filed last weekend. But Haley, unlike Pence, was in the race for the entire quarter. Pence announced his candidacy just three weeks before the reporting period ended. Scott jumped in just two weeks before Pence.
Pence also has yet to reach one of the key requirements to qualify for the first Republican presidential debate next month: obtaining a minimum of 40,000 unique donors. Six other Republican candidates already have met that threshold.
A Pence spokesperson did not respond to IBJ’s multiple requests for comment, but when asked on multiple TV stations whether his campaign would meet that metric, Pence assured viewers he would qualify without resorting to shticks like “offering gift cards,” alluding to North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s promise to give $20 gift certificates to supporters who donate $1 to his campaign.
To make it to the debate stage, candidates must also poll at least 1% in two national polls and two early-state polls, a hurdle Pence would likely clear given he currently hovers around 7% in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (21.2%) and former President Donald Trump (51.3%). In a close fourth is businessman and political novice Vivek Ramaswamy (5.6%), who has come up in a surprising third in some surveys.
“Pence has an opportunity to be the nominee, but that likelihood seems to get smaller with each poll showing Trump with big leads and headlines and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ fundraising power, both towering over Pence in that regard,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis.
Candidates have until 48 hours prior to the Aug. 23 debate, which will be held in Milwaukee, to meet the polling and fundraising requirements.
Pence’s supporters believe he still has a shot.
“I do think he will meet the threshold and will be in the debate,” said Al Hubbard, the Indianapolis businessman who led the National Economic Council during the George W. Bush administration. “It is important to the country that he participates in the debate. We should all hear his perspective on Trump.”
Others think his heavy campaigning in Iowa and South Carolina could propel him to victory in early primary states.
“You can’t look at the race right now as a national race. You have to look at Iowa, then South Carolina, then New Hampshire,” said Jim Atterholt, who was Pence’s chief of staff during his time as Indiana governor. “Those are the states that set the pace of the overall national race.”
Bloomberg reported Thursday that Pence’s campaign is ramping up its digital outreach to Republican donors to avoid the embarrassment of missing the debate. The campaign has paid for an email advertisement asking 40,000 people to donate just $1 to help him qualify.
Pence also asked his Twitter followers this week to donate $1, but don’t expect a Starbucks gift card in return.
“Even $1 will make sure we get on that stage,” he told NewsNation’s Elizabeth Vargas.
This story is by Peter Blanchard of the Indianapolis Business Journal.
