INDIANAPOLIS — This column is being written during the explosive Senate Judiciary testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, but the topic unfolding below is my initial forecasting for Indiana General Assembly races.
The reason for this juxtaposition is the sensational and bizarre events cascading over the U.S. Capitol and how they could impact races ranging from Republican Mike Braun’s challenge to Sen. Joe Donnelly, to legislative seats in suburban Indiana.
How the Ford v. Kavanaugh testimony impacts the Nov. 6 election will be the topic of columns over the next few weeks. At this writing, the so-called “blue wave” (or “pink wave”) that has been speculative of potential Democrat gains is impossible to gauge. The Supreme Court testimony is akin to a bomb lobbed into the mid-term elections. We just don’t know who takes the shrapnel.
After talking to Republican and Democratic operatives, this is clear: All eyes are on suburban districts in places like Crown Point, Valparaiso, Granger, Mishawaka, Westfield, Zionsville, Carmel, the Lafayettes, Indianapolis, and those north of Louisville.
At these locales, we’re watching Democratic challenges to State Reps. Julie Olthoff in the Crown Point area by Lisa Beck, Sally Siegrist in Lafayette from Chris Campbell, and Cindy Kirchhofer in Indianapolis from former Rep. John Barnes.
There’s Rep. Dale DeVon getting a hard challenge from Dr. Donald Westerhausen of Elkhart, Rep. Donna Schaibley in Hamilton County from Naomi Bechtold, and Rep. Jim Pressel from Karen Salzer in LaPorte County.
Note the many female challengers.
In the Senate, Republican incumbent Mike Delph faces a vigorous rematch from Democrat J.D. Ford, while Sen. Jim Merritt has his hands full against Democrat Derek Camp, both districts split between Indianapolis and Hamilton County, while Sen. Jon Ford is being pressed by Democrat Chris Gambill in the Terre Haute area.
I’m also watching an open seat north of Louisville and Democrat Anna Murray’s challenge to Republican Sen. Ron Grooms around Jeffersonville.
At this point, both Democrat and Republican operatives see only modest gains for Democrats, maybe three to four seats in the Senate, where Republicans have a 41-9 supermajority, and three to seven seats in the House, where Republicans control 70-30.
If Sen. Joe Donnelly loses to Braun and Democrats don’t make serious inroads in the General Assembly, Indiana will essentially become cemented as a one-party state. Not only do Democrats control only 39 of 150 legislative seats, but only three of 11 congressional seats and none of the Statehouse constitutional offices. So this election has enormous consequences.
Democrats should benefit from the national environment with President Trump’s approval mired in the low 40-percent range. A recent Ipsos/Reuters Poll in Indiana showed Donnelly with a 46-43 percent lead over Braun. I remember Donnelly telling me Sen. Richard Lugar was in trouble in 2012 when he polled under 50 percent. But it shows Trump’s Indiana approval at 48 percent, with 51 percent disapproving, well below the 57 percent he won the state with in 2016.
I was shown a recent poll from a suburban Indianapolis legislative district held by a Republican that sheds some light. The Indiana right/wrong track is at 57/30 percent. Sen. Donnelly had a 48-34 percent lead over Braun. Gov. Eric Holcomb’s job approval stood at 66/19 percent.
In this particular district, President Trump’s approval was 41 percent and his disapproval was 55 percent. Among independents, Trump was 28/68 percent approve/disapprove; 22/71 percent with moderates, 84/13 percent with conservatives; 46/54 percent with non-college graduates and 39/56 percent with college grads. Vice President Mike Pence stood at 45 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove. My extremely informed and reliable Republican source told me, “We’re seeing numbers like these all across Marion County.”
But outside the suburban areas, even in the tariff-buffeted soybean and RV belts, President Trump remains very popular.
In "The Region," once a fertile ground for Democratic hopes and dreams, the party finds a governor who is spreading road funding at a frenetic pace, and is double-tracking the South Shore Line. His asset management decision to tax Indiana East/West Toll Road truckers has barely registered on voters’ radar, sources in both parties say. And Region folks hear nothing but bad, bad, baaaad news out of Chicago, where Mayor Rahm Emanuel is bailing, the murder spree continues, taxes are exorbitant, and corruption remains endemic. In contrast, Indiana looks pretty darn good.
Hoosier Republicans are also benefiting from the maps they drew in 2011 that have essentially relegated Democrats to the urban areas and the college towns.
Could anything change this equation? Well, back to the Ford v. Kavanaugh testimony, a sympathetic take on the judge’s accuser could motivate the suburban women voters to turn out like they did in that special Alabama U.S. Senate race last December that featured a Republican accused of sexual misconduct.
If Republicans believe Kavanaugh is getting a bum rap from his high school partying days, that could spur a reaction the other way. Indeed, a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll showed that while Democrats had a 52-40 percent lead in the congressional generic, GOP voter intensity was rising, suggesting that potential backlash.
So this is a fluid political dynamic. Grab your kayak. Don’t forget the life vest and paddle.
