Johnson County’s COVID-19 positivity rate and hospitalizations took a turn for the worse in the final week of the year.
Johnson County’s positivity rate reached 16% today because of a change in the way the Indiana State Department of Health is calculating it. When the software update went live Wednesday, the positivity rate jumped more than two percentage points from 13.8%.
With the software update, the positivity rate is calculated by adding the weekly total of positive tests and dividing that number by the total of tests given, said Dr. Kristina Box, state health commissioner. Before, the rate was calculated by dividing the total of positive cases reported each week by seven, she said.
If the software update had been in place sooner, Johnson County likely would have been “red” since late November. However, before Wednesday, Johnson County was only in the “red” for two weeks in early December.
Statewide, the software update prompted a 2% increase in positivity rates and put half of the state’s counties in “red.” “Red,” according to the state’s color-coded metrics, are assigned when there are more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents and the 7-day positivity rate is 15% or higher.
Though positivity rates increased, statewide case totals and hospitalizations dropped slightly, but are still in the thousands per day. It is too soon to say the state has turned a corner, Box said Wednesday.
The virus continues to have severe outcomes for many. So far, the virus has contributed to the death of nearly 8,000 Hoosiers, with 99 additional deaths reported Wednesday, including two more in Johnson County.
Johnson Memorial Hospital reached yet another milestone Monday, when staff were treating a new all time high of 24 COVID-positive patients, said Dr. David Dunkle, the hospital’s president and CEO.
The COVID-19 caseload this week has varied widely, from 24 on Monday, down to 13 on Tuesday, and back up to 19 on Wednesday. Due to the high volume and critical needs of some patients, the COVID unit is now divided up, with the most severe case being treated in the Critical Care Unit, while others are placed in a separate area, Dunkle said.
Daily hospitalizations for COVID-19 vary widely because patient outcomes vary widely. Some patients are only in the hospital for a day or two before their condition is stable enough for discharge, while others stay for more than a week, he said.
“No longer can I tell you what the typical patient stay is,” Dunkle said. “The numbers are so high and their courses are so variable I can no longer try to predict how long they will stay.”
Though individuals who are elderly or have comorbidities are still at higher risk, Dunkle underscored that COVID-19 is unpredictable and all susceptible. For example, he cited Luke Letlow, a 41-year-old Congressman-elect from Louisiana, who died this week of the virus though he would not have been considered "high risk."
As Johnson County returns to "red," the gathering limit goes back down to 25 people. Dunkle asked county residents to eliminate nonessential gatherings to slow the spread and relieve the hospital.
The spread of COVID-19 is more likely to occur in social gatherings when masks come off and guards come down, he said, pointing to personal experience and a new study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The study, which was conducted among Mississippi children and adolescents who tested positive for COVID-19, found that children were more likely to test positive for the virus after attending a gathering with family or friends outside of their household.
This was even true among children whose parents reported that everyone at the gathering wore masks and adhered to social distancing. The study is available online at cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6950e3-H.pdf.
