Franklin graduate Max Clark is expected to be one of the first five players selected when the MLB draft begins on Sunday night.
Daily Journal file photo
Max Clark has long dreamed of playing professional baseball.
That dream will soon become a reality — and on Sunday night, Clark will find out which franchise he’ll begin his career with.
The recent Franklin graduate, named Gatorade’s national high school player of the year last month, is widely expected to be among the first five overall selections in the 2023 Major League Baseball draft. He’s part of a top tier that includes LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, LSU pitcher Paul Skenes, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford and North Carolina high school slugger Walker Jenkins.
Crews has long been pegged as the likely No. 1 pick, but a lot can happen behind closed doors, especially when millions of dollars are involved. Here’s a quick primer on what to expect come Sunday evening:
Is Max really that good?
Yes. He’s been Gatorade’s state player of the year in all three of his high school seasons and won national honors this spring. He’s what scouts consider a “five-tool” prospect, meaning he’s a player they believe grades out as average or better in five different areas — hitting for average, hitting for power, fielding ability, throwing arm and speed. The consensus is that Clark is a “plus” (above average) player in four of those categories, with power the one currently lagging behind the other four.
“Those five guys are on a tier by themselves compared to the rest of the draft,” said Jim Callis, a senior writer for MLB Pipeline. “I think Max has got the best all-around tools of any of them. It’s hard to compare him to Skenes because Skenes is a pitcher, but I think he’s a plus hitter, well above average speed, well above average arm, plus center fielder, and I think the power maybe lags behind the other tools, but he’s not a slap hitter — I think it’s at least 20-home run power. He’s got a track record of performing with Team USA on the biggest stages he’s been on. And the makeup, too; I think people like the makeup. It’s a really good personality, works hard. It is hard, really, to find faults with him.”
Keith Law, a senior baseball writer for The Athletic, largely agrees with Callis’ assessment. Law ranked Clark fourth among his top 100 prospects; Callis has him fifth.
“Clark is an outstanding all-around athlete, a 70 runner with an incredible build and an easy, pretty left-handed swing that looks geared to drive the ball to all fields,” Law wrote. “He’s got bat speed and hand strength that should translate to plus power or close to it when he reaches his peak, even without the projection to add a ton of muscle between now and then. His speed translates to plus defense in center and he has the arm to play anywhere in the outfield. He’s earned praise from scouts for his competitiveness and his work ethic.”
Which teams seem most interested?
Clark has met in person with representatives from all 30 teams, and every team has done their due diligence in terms of watching him in person. But based on which scouts were showing up at Franklin most frequently during the spring, the two teams with the highest level of interest appear to be the Pittsburgh Pirates, who do own the No. 1 overall pick, and the Texas Rangers, who pick fourth.
Most draft observers believe the Washington Nationals are almost certain to select Skenes at No. 2, with that only possibly changing if Crews is somehow still available. Law’s first two mock drafts had the Detroit Tigers taking Clark at No. 3, but many other mocks have had Langford in that spot based on the belief that the Tigers are more likely to go with a college hitter.
“I think most teams in general, if things are equal or close to equal, they’re going to lean toward the college player because you’ve seen that guy prove himself at higher levels against better competition,” Callis said. “You have more data.”
If Clark is still available when the Rangers go on the clock at No. 4, that heavy in-person scouting presence indicates that he could well be their guy. If not, he probably doesn’t get past the Minnesota Twins at No. 5.
Could he really go No. 1 overall?
It’s not likely, but it’s possible. Not many people would rank Clark above Crews on their big boards, but the gap is close enough that financial factors could alter the pecking order on draft night. Here’s why:
Each team has a predetermined bonus pool that it can use on the players it selects in the first 10 rounds of the draft; the Pirates have the most money to spend ($16,185,700) and the Philadelphia Phillies ($5,185,500) have the least. Teams exceeding their bonus pool by more than 5% lose a future first-round pick — which is probably why no team has ever done so.
There are guardrails within those pool rules. Every pick in the first 10 rounds has an assigned value, or slot value. Teams can pay out bonuses above or below that slot value, and what often happens is that teams picking near the top of the draft will try to pay players below slot so that they have more money available to use on picks in the second round and beyond. It’s a good way to potentially snag two first-round talents in one draft.
The slot value for the Pirates at No. 1 overall is $9,721,000, but they’re unlikely to spend that much. The highest bonus ever paid out to a draft pick was the $8,416,300 that the Tigers gave to Spencer Torkelson in 2020, with the top two picks in last year’s draft, Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones, next up at $8,190,000 and $8,189,400, respectively.
Some have speculated that the Pirates might not necessarily be willing to meet Crews’ asking price; the LSU star is represented by mega-agent Scott Boras, who has been known to seek and often receive top dollar. If Boras and Crews are looking for full slot, or even anything north of $9 million, Pittsburgh might consider a different option at No. 1 (ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel actually had Clark going first in a late May mock draft for that reason).
Such a scenario may be more plausible this year because of the glut of available talent. In the pandemic year of 2020, MLB shortened its draft from 40 rounds to five and put greater constraints on bonus pool money, leading a lot of top players who might normally have signed out of high school to spend the last three years in college instead. That means the Pirates have more palatable fallback plans if they don’t want to pay the kind of ransom Boras asks for.
Callis acknowledges that things could play out that way — and that Langford and Clark are the most likely alternatives in such a case — but he also cautions that it remains unlikely.
“The money will play a factor,” he said, “but I also think there’s an element of ‘don’t get cute with the No. 1 pick,’ especially if you have guys like Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes out there.”
How can I watch?
The first round of the draft begins at 7 p.m. Sunday and will be aired on both ESPN and MLB Network. A live draft party will be held at the DriveHubler.com Amphitheater in Franklin from 5 to 10 p.m.; Clark will be at his home when the draft begins but is expected to appear at the downtown party shortly after he is selected.
