SCOUTING THE STATE MEET
An event-by-event breakdown of what to expect at this weekend’s girls state swimming and diving finals:
200 medley relay
Top seed (based on sectional times): Hamilton Southeastern (1:42.29)
Local qualifiers: Franklin (1:45.74, eighth); Center Grove (1:45.90, ninth)
What to look for: Though HSE, Carmel and Penn were all within half a second of one another at the sectional, the Greyhounds always seem to have another gear and will fully load their quartet at the Nat; they’re a prohibitive favorite. The Grizzly Cubs and Trojans fought one another tooth and nail at the sectional, and while both could crack the A final, it could end up being an either-or between the two of them for the eighth and final spot in that race.
200 freestyle
Top seed: Lynsey Bowen, Carmel (1:47.85)
Local qualifiers: Lili Ratzlaff, Franklin (fourth, 1:49.75); Reagan Graves, Franklin (14th, 1:51.94); Addyson Matern, Center Grove (17th, 1:53.19)
What to look for: Bowen won this event last year and is the favorite again, but she’ll face stiff competition from the likes of teammate Alexandra Ward, Concord’s Catherine Brenneman and Ratzlaff, any of whom could challenge with an exceptional swim. Graves is seeded just 1.18 seconds back of eighth and could sneak into the A final, while Matern is quite capable of scoring points as well.
200 individual medley
Top seed: Audrey Crawford, HSE (1:59.97)
Local qualifier: Karlie Dodd, Center Grove (13th, 2:06.32)
What to look for: Crawford was the state runner-up last winter behind Carmel’s Molly Sweeney, who comes in as the No. 3 seed (2:01.14) but also the odds-on favorite to win. Dodd, meanwhile, should be able to score points if she can replicate her sectional swim, and she’s within shouting distance of the top eight if she can drop another second or so (Fort Wayne Carroll’s Peyton O’Connor is the No. 8 seed at 2:05.49).
50 freestyle
Top seed: Julie Mishler, Wawasee (22.24)
Local qualifiers: Lara Phipps, Center Grove (third, 23.04); Lexi Stuart, Center Grove (21st, 24.22)
What to look for: The race for first will likely come down to Mishler, who was third in 2023, and defending 100 free champ Lilian Christianson of Penn, who is seeded second (22.66) and was the runner-up last year. Phipps should be able to safely make her way into the A final, as she’s consistently been in the mid- to low 23s all season; can she close her prep career in the 22s? Stuart’s seed time is less than a tenth of a second outside the top 16, so scoring is a realistic goal for her as well.
1-meter diving
Top seed (based on regional scores): Amelia Rinehart, Fort Wayne Snider (529.20)
Local qualifiers: Ella Taylor, Indian Creek (third, 467.60); Camy Quiggins, Franklin (sixth, 423.70)
What to look for: The favorites for the crown are Rinehart and Park Tudor’s Simone Hall (458.85), who finished second and third behind Center Grove’s Mia Prusiecki last year, but returning medalists Taylor and Quiggins could end up in the mix — if they’re fully healthy. Quiggins has been battling the aftereffects of an injury suffered during the Mid-State Conference meet last month, while Taylor will try to gut through a shoulder injury that she incurred during Tuesday’s regional. Both are more than capable of ending their high school careers with top-five finishes if they’re feeling right.
100 butterfly
Top seed: Alex Shackell, Carmel (51.21)
Local qualifiers: Matern, Center Grove (14th, 56.89); Chloe Vitatoe, Franklin (19th, 58.03)
What to look for: Picking Shackell to win this race is like picking the sun to rise; it’d take an apocalyptic event for her not to. The real mystery is whether the junior, whose career best is 49.49, can make a run at Claire Curzan’s national high school record of 49.24. Matern and Vitatoe are both capable of earning a second swim in this event, but the field is closely bunched so it’ll likely require a best time out of either of them.
100 freestyle
Top seed: Phipps, Center Grove (49.69)
Other local qualifiers: Ratzlaff, Franklin (third, 50.58); Tenley Wilkins, Center Grove (22nd, 53.14)
What to look for: Phipps won her sectional showdown with Ratzlaff, and both were rewarded with high seeds. A rematch could be in the cards this Saturday, but this is a wide-open race with as many as six or seven potential winners, including defending champ Christianson, who’s seeded second at 49.92. Wilkins is seeded about one second outside of the top 16, but if she’s got a lifetime best in her tonight then she can potentially crack the scoring.
500 freestyle
Top seed: Bowen, Carmel (4:47.15)
Local qualifier: Graves, Franklin (15th, 5:07.56)
What to look for: Carmel has the top three seeds and they’re all nearly five seconds clear of fourth, so a sweep is likely; Ward, the runner-up last year, will try to take out her junior classmate. Making the A final would take a significant time drop from Graves, and while Franklin coach Zach DeWitt believes there’s more meat on the bone with her in this event, it remains to be seen whether it’ll be enough to crack the top eight. She should, however, be able to go fast enough to move up from her seed.
200 freestyle relay
Top seed: Center Grove (1:34.18)
Other local qualifier: Franklin (13th, 1:38.97)
What to look for: Carmel, who’s won this event the last five years and 14 of the last 16, was disqualified during the sectional meet, so the title is unexpectedly there for the taking. Barring a big time drop from further down the list, expect a three-way race for the crown between the Trojans, Fishers (1:34.82) and Penn (1:35.02). The Grizzly Cubs, who had three freshmen on this relay at sectional, are somewhat of a long shot to make the A final but should be able to make it to Saturday.
100 backstroke
Top seed: Shackell, Carmel (52.65)
Local qualifiers: None
What to look for: It won’t be as clear-cut as the 100 fly, but Shackell is a solid favorite here too, sitting almost two seconds ahead of No. 2 seed Mishler. Center Grove Sectional champ Lylah Theriac of Mooresville is seeded third. Franklin’s Vitatoe, Naomi Henry and Jovie Mowrey finished 2-3-4 at sectional but all narrowly missed the cut here.
100 breaststroke
Top seed: Sweeney, Carmel (1:02.20)
Local qualifiers: Karlie Dodd, Center Grove (eighth, 1:03.67); Rayah Rugenstein, Center Grove (23rd, 1:06.55)
What to look for: Though Valparaiso’s Madeline Moreth and Noblesville’s Maya McDonald are both seeded within .04 seconds of Sweeney, the Carmel sophomore is a strong favorite to repeat after winning by almost two seconds last year. Dodd isn’t guaranteed a spot in the A final — it’ll take at least a repeat of her sectional effort — but she could swim her way up as high as fourth with a good weekend. Rugenstein, a freshman, would need a best swim tonight to return Saturday.
400 freestyle relay
Top seed: Fishers (3:27.04)
Local qualifiers: Center Grove (second, 3:27.07); Franklin (seventh, 3:29.23)
What to look for: Aside from the 100 free, this is the event with the most local heft up top. The Trojans probably can’t beat a fully loaded Carmel team — nobody has in this event since 2008 — but they should be right in the mix for second alongside Fishers and Fort Wayne Carroll. The Grizzly Cubs are also a pretty likely A finalist and could very well crack the top five with a pair of good performances. A strong finish to the weekend in this event should have both local powers in the mix to finish in the top five or 10 of the overall team standings.
