Republican presidential candidate former Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen arrive to speak at a campaign event, Wednesday, June 7, 2023, in Ankeny, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Republican presidential candidate former Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen arrives to speak at a campaign event, Wednesday, June 7, 2023, in Ankeny, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Former Vice President Mike Pence rang in his 64th birthday Wednesday by launching his campaign for president — in a move his allies heralded as a return to “civility” in politics but that political analysts said was unlikely to win him the Republican nomination.
“There’s a bigger public out there … and they’re sick of all this finger-pointing and name-calling,” said Mike McDaniel, whose tenure as Indiana Republican Party chairman overlapped with Pence’s start in Congress.
“Even as the Republican Party has changed a lot … he still probably has the best claim to that Reagan-esque mantle. The problem is, you know: is that going to sell in today’s Republican Party?” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of the nonpartisan election analysis newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Pence, in a campaign launch video released early Wednesday, spoke of a country plagued by economic, political and cultural turmoil — before countering the imagery with an optimistic speech with references to Reagan.
“We can turn this country around,” Pence concluded. “But different times call for different leadership.”
At an event in Iowa in the afternoon, he was joined by Hoosiers including House Speaker Todd Huston.
“He’s our next president,” Huston said. “We can be proud of Mike Pence for being a tireless fighter for conservative values, small government, lower taxes, and for being a champion of school choice.”
Making his case
Pence’s supporters highlighted his faith and stalwart, hard-working nature as refreshing in the typically bare-knuckle arena of national politics. But analysts say he may struggle to chart a path between voters that view him as a traitor for certifying 2020’s election results and those who say he sold out in the four years prior.
“I’m sure there’s political considerations, but the primary purpose for Mike Pence [in deciding whether to run] is whether he feels called to do this and whether it’s God’s will for him to do it,” said Jim Atterholt, who served as then-Indiana Gov. Pence’s chief of staff.
“I think he’s all about civility and trying to bring people together, and about sticking with his basic principles that he always has,” McDaniel said. “But I think he thinks America is ready for civility, especially after what happened on the sixth.”
Pence joins a crowded field fighting for the GOP nomination: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, political commentator Larry Elder, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, U.S. Sen Tim Scott of South Carolina, Former President Donald Trump, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
But polls show that anyone who’s not former President Donald Trump may struggle to win the nomination, let alone those central to pivotal events like the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
“It’s difficult to see how anybody, including Ron DeSantis, is able to overtake Trump with the movement back to Trump that we saw the beginning of this year,” GOP pollster Christine Matthews said.
In national polls of GOP candidates, Trump has consistently earned at least half of respondents, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sitting in the 20% range, according to polling averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight. Pence has remained far behind both, slumping slightly from 6.6% in March to 5.4% this month.
Matthews asserted that Pence’s “natural” evangelical base has largely moved to Trump, while noting that “never-Trump” Republicans would “never forgive” Pence for his role in the Trump administration.
“So who is there?” Matthews asked. “I mean, right now, there’s 6%.”
McDaniel countered, saying, “Mike threaded that needle beautifully for the whole time he was there, until he got thrown under the bus by Trump.”
But even supporters appeared to hedge their bets.
“Mike Pence is a proven conservative leader that helped write Indiana’s success story as governor,” Indiana GOP Chair Kyle Hupfer said in a written statement. “And as vice president, he helped restore America’s standing after the failed years of the Obama presidency.”
“His voice will add to a race with a deep bench of talent,” Hupfer said, before emphasizing his own “laser focus” on getting a Republican in office to end President Joe Biden’s “failed administration.”
Meanwhile, Pence’s opposition pounced on his announcement.
“Despite appearing to lead with his faith, Pence pushed policies that have hurt the most vulnerable among us,” Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Mike Schmuhl said in a written statement.
“… As president, he would continue this awful track record and pursue a nationwide abortion ban that would criminalize women and doctors – all under the guise of a phony Christian conservatism that is neither neighborly nor shows much Hoosier hospitality,” Schmuhl said.
Path to the nomination
Few rule out the potential for good showings at the country’s first smattering of nominating conventions, beginning with Iowa, but say generating momentum will be key.
Pence allies say the candidate needs to focus on his political resume — along with his record on key issues like abortions and guns — and lean into skills in “retail” politics.
His age doesn’t hurt, either.
“I hope it’s no accident that he’s announcing on his birthday. What I mean by that is: Biden’s 80. Trump’s 78. And Mike will be 64,” McDaniel said — freeing Pence from the persistent age-related criticism and health fears those two candidates have faced.
The Crystal Ball’s Coleman said coming within the top two or three at the initial conventions could boost Pence’s chances. But he said he still expected a Trump nomination.
But never say never, allies contend.
“You’ve got to be in the arena in order to have a chance,” Atterholt said. “… I think by stepping in that arena, Mike Pence is far from a long shot.”
By Leslie Bonilla Muñiz. The Indiana Capital Chronicle is an independent, not-for-profit news organization that covers state government, policy and elections.
